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Post by hsfbfan on Sept 20, 2009 12:45:19 GMT -5
That Monty never got in the end zone against Grant is not a very telling statistic. Last night Grant played Bellevue, the 6th ranked team in the state of Washington, and they did not score a point against Grant either; in fact, Grant has yet to surrender a single point yet this year - it appears that their defense is exceptional. Newman fans can spin the results of the first two games however you wish to, but it is quite likely more wishful thinking more than anything else to conclude from a pair of blowout losses anything other than (the unthinkable!) that Cardinal Newman just may not be very good this year. Again, I am not saying they are not...they may end up being a very solid team, but based on the results of their first two games, it is also entirely possible that they just are not very good.
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Post by Ben Herrington on Sept 20, 2009 14:00:02 GMT -5
I'd agree that Montgomery is largely unknown, but with their previous record and number of returning players, their status as a top NBL is pretty solid.
Rancho is going to hurt teams, plain and simple, and right now I think is the favorite for the NBL title. Their Defense had a huge letdown agaisnt Castlemont in the second half, but I dont think anyone (except Casa or Petaluma) could rival Rancho's offense.
Cardinal Newman along with Rancho and Monty should be the top three. The best of these three will finish 7-0, the worst 5-2. Considering Newman hasnt lost two NBL games since 2002 under Mike Ervin, I would think Newman should finish right at 6-1 or 7-0. Considering these three teams are so close to eachother at the moment, its hard to say who will do what. For now, Ill take:
Rancho
Newman
Monty
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Post by hsfbfan on Sept 20, 2009 15:43:54 GMT -5
They could all end up 6-1, in round robin win and loss vs. the other 2. If this were to happen, what is the tie-breaker on the league title, or is it co-co champions?
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Post by Ben Herrington on Sept 20, 2009 19:24:25 GMT -5
I think it comes down to a coin flip for the championship. All three teams will more than likely enter the playoffs, but that single team would have the championship, meaning a seed above the other two and a home game. I dont think they would all tie, that would be too messed up! Now just watch, Newman and Rancho are going to tie or something like that.
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Post by hsfbfan on Sept 20, 2009 20:06:41 GMT -5
I would say this is more of a possibility this year than in past years - not that it is likely, but could happen. A coin flip seems like a poor way to make the determination, but what else are they going to do...maybe all the games with all 3 will be ties! That would be really strange - of course, if this did happen then they would all be undefeated!
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Post by Ben Herrington on Sept 20, 2009 21:03:06 GMT -5
5-0-2 would look pretty stupid for three teams. All three compete in the NCS Div. II so they could be playing each other again.
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Post by hsfbfan on Sept 20, 2009 21:07:23 GMT -5
Quite doubtful....More likely, it will be 5-2, 6-1, 7-0, or 5-2 and a pair of 6-1 records...you fill in the blanks as to who is who...but even a single tie would throw a monkey wrench into the equation.
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Post by norcalsportsfan on Sept 20, 2009 22:16:56 GMT -5
To me it looks like CN could be a pretty good team in the end, but have a few holes to fix and adjustments to make, and probably not a team with the talent of the last few years. The early season teams they are playing (CC and DO) are much better than they were last year (Palma should be close to the same on offense and better defense). CN while still a very good team relative to most good leagues isn't where they were last season at this time. I'm not to sure last season's CN would have defeated this Central Catholic and DelOro teams (most definately not this DelOro team). Not sure they will lose in league, but looks like at the least there will be some competitive games in league with a couple teams. I've seen teams in the last 30 years that started out with 3 straight losses and turn things around and end up winning section championships. DLS had a very poor start a few years ago and ended up dominating their section at the end. It's not so much how you start, but how you end that determines a successful season. They may be out for the state bowl (possibly), but not a league or section championship. D2 in NCS will have decent teams but all have flaws it seems so no clear favorite.
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Post by hsfbfan on Sept 20, 2009 23:29:55 GMT -5
I think that is a pretty good analysis and very possibly right on the money, but my original point was that Ben had essentially concluded that Newman was a shoe-in to sweep league, or go no worse than 6-1. While this may end up being the case, there is very little from the first two games that they played that would logically have you draw this conclusion. After they have played some games at "their own level" (which their first 3 opponents were supposed to be, more or less), then I think that a better assessment of what kind of team they are can be made...and the same can probably be said for Rancho and Monty. Rancho, while having dominated so far, has played some fairly low rated teams and while they have done very well, these games are probably not true tests of what kind of team they are. Monty played one team way over its' head and one team way under, so they too are an unknown. Newman, apparently, has played 2 teams over its' head, but this was not thought to be the case before these 2 games were played. And we may never know what kind of teams these 3 really are until they play each other, although Monty's game next week with Casa should be some better indication of where they are at.
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Post by penguin on Sept 21, 2009 12:19:37 GMT -5
I've only seen Cardinal Newman play once against Del Oro. And I think that game was more about what Del Oro was than what Cardinal Newman wasn't, so it's difficult to evaluate them based on that one game. But I am concerned about their lack of size, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Granted, size isn't the end all and just because a team isn't big it doesn't mean they aren't talented. And vice versa. But I have to admit I was immediately struck by how small they are, especially their linebackers. And wonder if less talented teams will be able to take advantage of that by having a physical advantage up front.
Just a thought.
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stogi
Full Member
Posts: 180
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Post by stogi on Sept 21, 2009 14:32:47 GMT -5
Jeez talk about beating a dead horse. No sense in comparing last year's teams to this year's as the two will never meet.
From what I heard from Newman, they felt that Central Catholic fielded it's weakest team in several years. Having watched the last three years worth of games I can see why they feel that.
Stogi
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Post by hsfbfan on Sept 21, 2009 15:24:15 GMT -5
If this was a weak Central Catholic team, relatively speaking to past years, this would not seem to bode well for Newman, given the result of that game...and I agree that there is no sense in comparing different year's teams (am assuming you are referring to last year's Newman vs. this year's) - if this is correct, then this is exactly my point. Most typically, and logically, you can only anticipate what a new year's team will do based upon its prior success, somewhat, in addition to how many of the players who contributed to that prior success are still available for the next year. However, this does not account for some new players, some players who progress further, or lesser than others from one season to the next and players who have not played varsity before who nobody knows about how they might contribute to the success of the team the next year. With Newman, this year has been, to put it mildly, an unqualified lack of success. This could be the competition, or it could be the level of this year's team. We'll soon find out.
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Post by Ben Herrington on Sept 21, 2009 19:32:39 GMT -5
Central Catholic has it going on this season, I dont think they were down at all! Either way, CN needs to step it up, no doubting that.
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stogi
Full Member
Posts: 180
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Post by stogi on Sept 22, 2009 18:31:27 GMT -5
On any given year CC, Del Oro and Palma would probably thrash any NBL team but Newman. Due to that fact you can't really judge what Newman loosing to them means about their competiveness in their own league; however, you can make a pretty good prediction as to how they will do if they win all three of those games as they did last year.
Personally I think they have their work cut out for them this year and that is just based on who graduated from last years team and who is the replacement. Jack James is a hell of an athelete, but he does not have the touch on ball that Randy Wright had and I don't see his running abilities being any better than Randy's, but that may be because Randy had a better line.
Stout worked hard for almost 100 yards last week, but look who he's replacing, Badger and Fergie. Had either one of them been the lone back last year I have no doubt they would have put up over 200 yards per game more times than not. Badger proved this in the two games that Fergie was injured, and not only do you have to replace them in the backfield you have to replace them at linebacker too. Ratto and Bowman have been pretty good, but again they are not yet Badger and Fergie level.
When it comes to receivers and defensive backs who is replacing Wade Amaral, Casey Miller and Wyatt North? I don't see them matching up either, at least not yet.
Now with all that said I do still think that Newman can Compete. If I remember right the first trip to the State Championship started with a 1-1-1 record. Overall I think Newman will probably be somewhere around 8 and 5 this year and I wouldn't be shocked by 7 and 6.
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Post by bella on Sept 22, 2009 18:55:46 GMT -5
"If I remember right the first trip to the State Championship started with a 1-1-1 record."
Newman started 4-0 then lost to Monty. They didn't lose again until Oaks in the SBG.
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