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Post by hsfbfan on Oct 28, 2009 1:28:48 GMT -5
According to a potential playoff scenario as put forth by YSN (see below), it is a possibility that Montgomery and Newman could have a rematch in the first round of the playoffs. So, here's one question that comes to mind, if this match-up were to take place...which team would look forward to this game more?
On the one hand, Montgomery would seem to salivate at the opportunity to again face a team it dominated in the regular season. On the other hand, Newman would sure want to make up for a sub-par performance. Then there is the x-factor of the (reverse) home field advantage, where neither team can seem to beat the other on its' own home field (the assumption is that this game would take place at Montgomery) - but it seems this home field jinx has to end sometime.
Here is the part of the story from YSN that relates to the D2 playoff scenario:
WRITTEN BY JOE PASQUINI TUESDAY, 27 OCTOBER 2009 12:49
Hard to believe but just three weeks left in the High School Football Regular Season. Here is a brief look at the Power Rankings and how they may affect the Sonoma County Teams. As You Read This Remember three things: 1. This is just an overview, the Power Rankings very rarely go to form when the brackets come out, but it will give you a little reference where things stand. 2. Thumb nail view..haven't gone deep on who needs to do what to qualify as far as requirements like a .500 record to get in. Have seen situations where team are Rated High enough to get it, but the requirement record wise isn't enough. 3. League Champions, no matter what the Seeding would get a home game unless they are meeting another League Champion with a better seed. Division II...(12 teams).... Key Seeding: No. 1-No. 4 First Round Bye; No. 5-8 First Round Home Game First Round Byes: No. 1 Petaluma and No. 3 Casa Grande First Round Games: No. 12 Cardinal Newman at No. 5 Montgomery; No. 10 Las Lomas at No. 7 Windsor and No. 9 Rancho Cotate at No. 8 Clayton Valley. Teams With A Chance For A League Championship: Petaluma and Windsor Tied, Concord and Ygnacio Valley Tied; Montgomery and Eureka lead their leagues. Outside Looking In: No. 15 Maria Carrillo
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Post by 4thqtrcomeback on Oct 28, 2009 9:18:55 GMT -5
Good Analysis hsfbfan, but there are a couple of things you need to take into account:
1. If Monty wins out, they will more than likely be the four seed. It looks like you are getting your seeds directly from the calpreps rankings, but these will be changing. Calpreps began the season using rankings with a human element, and they decrease this element in their rankings every week. From what I understand, the human element is still a factor in their rankings until after next week. If you look at the ranking of the wins and losses of Montgomery & Eureka, you will find that they have the same record, but that Montgomery has beaten better teams, and lost to better teams. Monty's strength of schedule is a 9.0, while Eureka's is only a 5.0. Once the human element is out these two teams will flip flop. Eureka may drop more than one spot.
2. Also, one of the major factors of the playoffs seedings is how you did vs. teams in your own division. Eureka will only be 1-0, while if Montgomery wins out, they will be 5-1.
3. At this point, I don't see CN getting into the playoffs or Las Lomas (5-5) for that matter. I see Hayward sliding up to the #9 spot (8-2). Rancho dropping to the #10 (7-3), Alameda (6-3-1) sliding up to the #11 with a win over Pinole, and Pinole taking the #12 spot with a 7-2 record (I think they will loose to Berkeley).
That being said, its way to early. Ygnacio Valley & Windsor still have a shot at a high seed too.
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Post by homer2 on Oct 28, 2009 12:46:55 GMT -5
It goes without saying these last three weeks could change things....and will change things...as explained..this is a summary of where things stand at the moment...and it is not etched in stone..
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Post by hsfbfan on Oct 28, 2009 14:45:59 GMT -5
Agreed, homer, and I was not proposing the playoff scenario, but do find the prospect (and it is only a potential prospect) of a rematch between Montgomery and Newman quite intriguing
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Post by homer2 on Oct 28, 2009 14:49:33 GMT -5
I think most people in the area would find it intriguing. I would be surprised if that the brackets would be set up so they would meet in not in the first round the second....
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Post by hsfbfan on Oct 28, 2009 15:06:01 GMT -5
You are probably right, however, it could be, as the season ends up, that their seeds would be quite clear (presuming a relatively high seed for Montgomery and low seed for Newman), that it might end up being a first round match up, or second round only via a (perceived) upset by Newman over whoever they might be matched up against.
As for the home field "advantage", I wonder if these 2 have ever played a playoff game on their home field? I'm sure it has occurred at some point, but the only rematch that I can remember in recent years was 3 years ago when Newman thrashed Montgomery in the NCS finals, after Montgomery upset Newman during the regular season that year (of course, on Newman's field), but this championship game was at a neutral site, at Santa Rosa High.
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Post by homer2 on Oct 28, 2009 15:30:08 GMT -5
I think I remember reading back then that was the first ever Cardinal Newman-Montgomery playoff game..although I could be wrong....We are getting the cart before the horse though...Newman has to win two of three to even be playoff eligible.
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Post by Ben Herrington on Oct 28, 2009 19:01:36 GMT -5
Im usually the first football fan to be theorizing on playoff seeds, but Ive got to say, its just too early. Theres too may variables, much more than last season. 1) Carrillo 2) Newman 3) Ygnacio Valley 4) Windsor 5) Clayton Valley 6) Diablo Valley
SOS is going to be a nightmare! Eureka, Hayward, etc.
Putting two teams against eachother this early is impossible.
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Post by hsfbfan on Oct 28, 2009 19:49:20 GMT -5
You are correct Ben...many variables still at play...As for Newman, I don't think they get in unless they win all their remaining games...if they win only 2 of 3, they would be at 5-5, with perhaps no victories against any teams with a winning record (if they lose to Rancho and beat Carillo and Ukiah). If they beat Rancho, beat Ukiah and lose to Carillo, then they would have lost against a "inferior" team in Carillo (though this may not be the case by the end of the season). I think the only way they get in would be to sweep their remaining games. And the same with Carillo, although if they beat either Montgomery OR Newman and finish at least 5-5, I think they probably stand a better chance than Newman at 5-5...and of course, they could still win the NBL by winning out, but I don't see this happening.
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Post by Ben Herrington on Oct 28, 2009 19:56:48 GMT -5
I think Carrillo is the real wildcard here! They have Ukiah first, they should win, and if they do, they will be 4-4. Monty is up next, so there could be a good game if Carrillo is the team they should be. If Carrillo beats Ukiah, and hangs with Monty, they can beat Newman. A 5-5 Carrillo team would get in over a 7-3 Rancho team IMO. The head-to-head is considered very highly. Carrillo can do it with two wins, but Newman might not be able to do the same. They are also a wildcard, they've only lost one league game in three years, so I wouldnt put Rancho as a dominating favorite this week, though they do seem to have the edge.
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Post by hsfbfan on Oct 28, 2009 20:14:54 GMT -5
IF you are right that a 5-5 Carillo team can get in over Rancho, then this would have to occur by beating Newman...which would have Newman definitely on the outs, even if they beat Rancho (which would have Rancho not even at 7-3), because Carillo would have beaten Newman head to head. Thus, it goes back to the imperative nature of this weekend's game for both Newman and Rancho...in all likelihood, whichever one loses has virtually no chance of making the playoffs.
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Post by Ben Herrington on Oct 28, 2009 21:09:10 GMT -5
correct
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Post by hsfbfan on Oct 28, 2009 21:39:15 GMT -5
Don't be so wordy Ben!
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Post by homer2 on Oct 28, 2009 22:58:31 GMT -5
To early yes...fun to toss around...no...that wasn't the first time I mentioned the power rankings. Actually College Football talks about it all season...
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Post by hsfbfan on Oct 28, 2009 23:00:36 GMT -5
too early? yes...fun to toss around? YES!
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